Let me start with a disclaimer: I am neither an expert in Indian Politics or claim to be one. I gather my views and opinions by watching Arnab Goswami ( of course) and reading innumerable articles. So, if you do find my views to be incorrect, pardon me!
Being an entrepreneur, and constantly thinking of strategies to grow our business, I constantly read and analyze strategies of different companies. Also, having completed a masters program from a reputed B-School in the US, I was constantly exposed to a number of case studies involving strategy. Although, all the case studies involved only companies; none politics. And I began to wonder why. Political parties and politicians strategize as much as entrepreneurs do; why do we not have case studies and discussions on their strategy?
To understand Indian Politics, I have tried to analyze the strategy used by two main political parties- Indian National Congress and the BJP. By looking at the strategy employed by these two parties over a number of years, we can conclude that Congress has had a fairly better strategy than the BJP- probably why the congress party has ruled India for most of the post independent era.
Congress party is pretty much a dynasty based political party. Ever since Independence, the Nehru-Gandhi family has directly or indirectly run the party. The party has been run either from inside or from outside by this family. ' High Command' as is popularly used by the members of the party to describe the gandhi family, has the last and final say in pretty much everything with respect to the party. And if the congress led alliance is running the government, then the high command runs the government too- even if the member of the Gandhi family is not the literal head of the government i.e, the prime minister.
BJP is a more hindu based fundamental party. Having links to organizations like the RSS, the BJP is not shy in admitting this. They believe that India is typically a Hindu country, yet should be secular to allow citizens of all castes, creed to live happily in it. Over the years, the strategy of the BJP has failed- and failed miserably. They have been able to form the government pretty much just once for a full term. They don't have a system of dynasty politics- The party structure has typically worked on seniority- the more senior you are, the higher you climb. Performance also tends to play a role in determining who heads the party- a more democratic party than the congress is.
Indian Political system is extremely complex- apart from the size of the country, the population and the over emphasis on caste and creed. There are more than 1500 registered political parties in India today- while some of them play a national role, others play a more regional role. For over 5 decades after independence, the regional parties had very little say in forming the government at the centre; but over the last 15 years, the regional parties have grown to be much stronger- resulting in more coalition governments. No single party is able to get the majority in the parliament and smaller regional parties have had to tie up with the single largest party to cross the 270 mark to form the government. This had had two consequences- one positive and one negative. The positive consequence is that the government of the day is forced to focus on states and ensure their development- leading to a greater support from the regional parties. The negative consequence is that the decision making process suffers. India has seen a number of cases where log jams in parliament were not resolved as the coalition partners did not give the government of the day support to clear important bills.
The congress party has typically followed a ' secular' strategy'. India is typically a hindu majority country with muslims being considered a minority community. As per the latest census, Indian Muslims constitute 18.7% of the Indian Population- and this 18.7% is what the congress's strategy is based on. On studying the census further, 80.5% of the Indian Population are Hindus. So why does the congress party not focus on the 80.5% as much as they focus on the 18.7%? This, i believe, is part of their amazing strategy that has paid them rich dividends- 7 prime ministers since Independence as against BJP's 1 prime minister.
Hindu religion has innumerable sub castes within its main branch; And this makes it one of the more complex religions to win over. Consider this- there are more than 4000 castes and more than 25000 sub castes as per official records- and this is only as per official records- God only knows how many more are unregistered. And this makes the hindus extremely undivided. The congress has always understood this and never worked on appeasing the Hindus. They understood that such divisions on caste and sub caste will split the votes- and while 80.5% might sound a very big figure, the votes get split and further split. Mostly regional parties having a leader of a particular caste/sub caste tends to swing these votes towards themselves.
Muslim religion, though with a few sub-castes, is always a more united religion. If the community decides to vote for a party- members respect it- and this was what the congress worked on. They always believed that a 18.7% of confirmed votes made more sense- and this strategy has worked very well for them.
BJP on the other hand- with their sometimes hard stance on hinduism ignored the muslim vote banks. Not to say they did not work for the welfare of the minority community-- there are number of examples of them having worked for their benefit- they never made a hue and cry of it. This was a bad strategic move.
The other strategy that worked well for the congress party was to focus on the lower middle class and poor sections of the country. India has had a major percentage of middle and lower middle class people as compared to the upper middle and rich people. And Congress has always worked on a marketing strategy that is directed towards poor and the lower middle class people. For instance, announcing schemes such as the 'food security scheme' just before the elections are all done to appease these category of voters.
BJP on the other hand has always known to be a party that focusses on the upper middle class people. They have always believed that the percentage of Middle class population in the 'upper' category has considerably gone up over the years and have kept their marketing initiatives directed towards them. Who can forget the 'India shining campaign'?
So, now that we have understood both parties election strategy over the last many years, are they doing something different this time? Well, BJP certainly is. For instance, BJP has kept its RSS wing very quiet during this election, indicating they are not focussing on the 'Hindu' Votes. They are working on a two fold strategy- One, Development using Gujarat as an example. Two- Criticizing scams and corruptions over the last ten years of Congress rule. A brilliant strategy, cause its not about caste and creed anymore- Whether you are a muslim, or a Hindu or a Christian… all you want is a equitable and fair development model and lack of scams and a corrupt government.
On the other hand, Congress party is still continuing with the same strategy. While business school professors do tell you to stick to a strategy that has worked, when the entire business/political environment has changed, i believe one's strategy should evolve accordingly. If you listen to a spokesperson of the congress party speak on News hour with Arnab Goswami, you will still sense a bit of confidence in their attitude- and this probably comes from their belief that the muslim population will still vote for them ( hence they are constantly raking Gujart riots as part of their marketing campaign). Infact, Sonia Gandhi had a personal meeting with Muslim leaders to ensure the 18.7% of the population will vote for them.
They also believe that schemes such as the food security scheme announced just a couple of months before the election will make the poor and the lower middle class vote for them. But the question is will this work this time? A government plagued with huge corruption scandals, and lack of governance- will the Poor in India not understand this??
My opinion: Don't underestimate the poor in India. They may not be the most well read or the most educated. But, they do read the daily newspapers- they do have conversations that revolve around politics- and they do understand the idea of announcing schemes just days before the elections. Congress has its task cut out for sure. But its not that easy for BJP too. Unless they can convince people on the development front- they may not be able to get the required number to form the government. All in all- the most interesting election ever in India History.
